Donald John Trump was born on June 14th, 1946. He is the 45th and current president of the United States of America. Before he becomes the president, he was known as a successful businessman.
Can Trump Really Win The Next US Presidential Elections in 2020?
The short answer to this question: Yes, he can. But it is more complicated to give a short answer.
He needs to be victorious in a set of states that are not generally recognized as swing states.
What states are the swing states according to polls?
The problem with polls, they cannot be reliable, and may not be interpreting the actual information. That is why there is a term called “swing states”.
Most Americans support the idea the US economy is breaking record highs constantly. The unemployment rate fell to historically record lows. The average income is growing much faster than inflation. Everyone in the US started to live very rich since Trump became US president. He simply made the US a more peaceful and wealthier place.
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I like the fact that he doesn’t need to hide his intent, and he does what he wants to do no matter what.
I am the chosen one. Somebody had to do it. So I’m taking on China, I’m taking on China on trade. And you know what? We’re winning. Because we’re the piggy bank, we’re the one that all these countries, including the European Union, wants to rob and takes advantage of. European Union, $200 billion. China, more than $500 billion. I’m sorry.
Can Trump win without traditional swing states?
I’ve created what I think to be the most conservative (see: “charitable to Trump”) election map possible, given the state of the race.
So, here’s the most realistics map I could come up with, for the both candidates.
In practice, everything is possible from a cosmic teapot standpoint, but realistically, Trump cannot win California, nor Clinton can win Wyoming.
A few states that I’ve taken out of play:
During the election campaign, Pennsylvania altered its view of Hillary. It has rarely plunged into Trump land, though. If we combine the fact that Clinton’s dad is from Pennsylvania, there is a greater chance that Hillary will win.
Nevada polls have shown no indications of the win of Hillary throughout the election. But it has indirectly supported her so far, however. It is also a state close to the cutting edge of the nation’s bigger demographic change that has never supported the GOP.
Really, 2012 was the last time the Rs could have made even a theoretical game for the WH by purely raising the white / white-male vote (which is exactly what they did, and President Romney tells you how well that worked out) and in 2016, Trump’s alienated many Republican voters.
Trump must win the below states:
- North Carolina
and at minimum one of the following states
- New Hampshire
in order to go over the number of 270. So he has an extremely long and narrow path to win the elections. He has 2 options in front of him. Even if he lands the historically friendly states of GA, AZ, NC, and IA, he can only get 212 at maximum. And I believe this is probably was his ceiling for 2016.
Clinton must win any of the following
- North Carolina
- Iowa +New Hampshire (would need to win the pair if she loses all other states)
In order to cross over 270. A very short and wide path to victory. Seven total options for her. As of right now, the long view is that VA alone is trending strongly for Hillary, enough-so that I’d almost be willing to count it as “safe” for her. It also helps that close Clinton personal friend and major fundraiser Terry McAuliffe is doing everything he can as governor to ensure that as many people as possible in the state will be eligible to vote this November.
Virginia alone would take Clinton to 275.
I also think that FL will almost certainly go blue again, as just one survey showed Mr. Trump ahead there since February, and even then it was only 2 points when it was adjusted for house bias. Most surveys since July indicate a 4-6-point dominant Hillary, again adjusted for house impact. Libertarian candidate “Gary Johnson” has also been constantly polling in the state over the past 2 months at an extremely powerful 6.3 percent.
I think, then, that this is the most likely scenario to play out on November 8:
I deliberately passed NC blank because I don’t know what might happen. It was a dilemma state for the last two elections, but the legislature and governor did their utmost to disenfranchise as many minority and poor voters as possible. But the judiciary has already rolled back some of these provisions.
Clinton seems extremely likely to win this election. I don’t know the Senate or House, but it’s very possible that this November Hillary will have some long coattails, making her first two years in the office rather comfortable, but her second two and subsequent reelection bid may be treacherous or impossible.
Like in Dole v Clinton in 1996, we understand fairly much how things will now play out in the WH race, making down-ballot races more meaningful.
At this stage, Dems need to concentrate on turnout (as always) and winning down-ballot / local races and then placing in place powerful GOTV equipment for every election off-year from here on.
The GOP is fighting a losing battle because they won’t win the WH, and in the instant future, they could even lose both legislature houses. Trump earned this nomination in the longer term by salting the party’s earth.
Repeatedly hammering the immigration problem and making cultural grievance a centerpiece of his campaign has left most voters with the separate impression that this is a racially motivated campaign, probably leading to the decrease of his and the GOP’s voting block to those who have already voted for Trump in the primary.
The freshly salted soil of the GOP, however, had already deteriorated. The Republican party has become increasingly white, uneducated, and old for decades, while the nation as a whole has moved in the opposite direction on all three of these metrics.
This shows their desperate attempts to suppress voters in NC, TX and other newly-red regions (“last” meaning the previous few decades) because unless their increasingly rigid ideology evolves to invite younger, more qualified, and non-white voters, they’re sunk everywhere but the most socially conservative tracts in the nation.
If latest developments continue, in the next 20 years, Arizona, Texas, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and potentially even Utah will become solidly blue. All of the world’s gerrymandering couldn’t make up the losses.